The frightening thing is that it’s beyond possible that the GOP scores big in the next two elections and ends up with majorities and a trifecta.
To keep the Senate this November, Democrats have to defend their four incumbencies as well as gain Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at the very least, if they want a shot at going around Manchin and Sinema. Of these four incumbencies, two (Warnock in Georgia and Kelly in Arizona) were elected in special elections in swing states by very narrow margins, in states Biden won.
While the Senate is the most important chamber, as a simple majority can confirm judges, for any legislation to be passed, the Democrats have to keep the House, too, which they control by a historically thin six-seat margin. That’s six out of 435. They must do so in face of a wave of retirements on their side, as well as exceptionally poor numbers nationally, and the fact that the GOP has been gaining steam in the polls. Florida, one of the largest states and MAGA HQ, will almost draw the maps into a bloodbath.
Keeping one chamber would be hard; keeping both, while also gaining seats in the Senate, would be a fucking miracle.
However, there are several factors that could drastically reshape the odds. The COVID-19 pandemic, which arguably is the reason why Biden is in the hole he is to begin with, could subside or resurge. All the anti-vaxxers winning their Darwin awards could chip at the margin of victory in key states. Student loan forgiveness could bring out the youth vote. And more than that, there just may not be as many swing voters as there was in 2010 or 2020. The big wild card is former White House occupant Donald Trump and the ongoing probes into his activity, particularly by the House select committee.
Who knows? Maybe the polls will be wrong in the good way, this time.