The most probable scenario of a civil war or similar situations in the near future is the lack of transfer payments for "refugees", thus a collapse of their care due to the debts of the state. The ones affected by this failure will with a high probability plunder and steal to secure their existence. In contrast to the indigenous population the inhibitions to do such an act would be very low by the refugees out of crisis regions.

Accepting this means that if the insurgents get access to fire weapons in a very short time the common ways of self-defence will do little as the insurgents will have them at their disposal too. The only measure which does sense is a full coverage of armed populations like in the USA, Swiss and nowadays even the Czech Republic. It can be expected that the decision of the Czech Republic to change the constitution and to arm the population was done with that in mind. In our government it's obvious that such a thing can't be done. This is why the largest part of the populations will be hopelessly delivered, because at its extreme the Police and Bundeswehr won't have the forces at their disposal, which would be required, to maintain control over the country. No good outlook.