Here's my approach...
We are here. Life is here.
We are here via one of two ways;
1.) Dumb luck.
2.) Intelligent Design.
Eliminate the likelihood of one and...viola...the other is then the likeliest explanation, via deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, or any other process of logical reasoning one cares to choose.
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So far, attempts to estimate the "dumb luck" option, which I assume encompasses all possible natural causes, have all either:
a) come up empty (and thereby making this argument moot)
or
b) imply that it's virtually inevitable (and thereby making this argument moot).
It seems you are on the right track here, and your concept is correct. Now, just go the one step further and realize that the idea of an intelligent designer is absolutely preposterous and you'll have the answer.
Considering the collective IQ of most of our fundies & the mindblowing fact that they haven't blown up the planet yet, I'm going to go with dumb luck on this one. At this point, very, very dumb luck.
Sigh - yet another who never learned statistics or whose brain shuts down when trying to deal with numbers greater than a certain magnitude.
The chances of abiogenesis may not be large, but they're most definitely not zero. Now, keeping this in mind, take another look at the timescales we're dealing with (the suggested value is 100 million years - that's 1 followed by EIGHT zeros. Convert that to seconds and you're looking at 3.1 x 10^14 - FOURTEEN orders of magnitude!), and then consider the sheer number of randomly reacting molecules across across the entire surface of the planet in even a single second out of those 100 million years, if in fluid or gaseous form constantly being moved about by diffusion, convection, etc - is the emergence of such a level of complexity as we see today out of their interaction REALLY mathematically impossible? Just very unlikely? Perhaps even quite likely? How about if we include every other planet in the universe in the equation, which is yet another colossal number - is it mathematically impossible then that finitely complex arrangements of chemicals, capable of self-copying and surviving for a finite time greater than the time taken to self-copy in their respective environment, would arise anywhere at all?
"Here's my approach...
We are here. Life is here.
We are here via one of two ways;"
It is unclear whether you are spouting off against abiogenesis or evolution, but here goes.
"1.) Dumb luck."
Mutations happen randomly, but natural selection is not a random (dumb) process.
"2.) Intelligent Design."
Translation: "We couldn't figure out the answer, so we made this one up."
"Eliminate the likelihood of one and...viola...the other is then the likeliest explanation, via deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, or any other process of logical reasoning one cares to choose."
However, you proceed from the premise that an all-knowing, all-powerful, ever-existing, supernatural creator is more likely than life arising and/or evolving by natural means. Your premise is incorrect.
I think some people feel that their life has more meaning if someone up there specifically planned them for a purpose, and feel that if life was created by some random chance, it makes their existence meaningless. Which is silly. Of course, these are the same people who say they'd turn to drug use and crime if they discovered God didn't exist...
Oh crap... Intelligent design is merely a large amount of wishful thinking and fallacious strawmen, every single one of which has been disproven in a court of law by actual evidence. It was never about finding answers it was about undermining evolution in order to profit.
It is the classic example of a conspiracy theory.
1. Attack an undeniable truth, that the majority of people hold to be true, but have never fully researched why it is true.
2. After picking your fictitious holes in the issue, start to offer ridiculous claims as to why they go with their 'lie' and follow it up iwth even more ridiculous claims as to what the truth must be. (Never try to justify your version of the truth, just offer it as the only other possible solution and winner by default)
3. Claim persecution when no one takes you seriously.
4. Claim they're lying to promote their lie when they finally get pissed off enough to prove all your strawmen wrong.
And don't the fucking idiots lap it up!
"Am I the only one shocked because they're arguing about ID vs. Evolution on a site devoted to a series of sci-fi movies??"
Nope. Yet ANOTHER fundie giving us Star Wars geeks a bad name. Hey, Darth Hit The Books (please!), was Kenobi your teacher? Luck? 'Cause he obviously doesn't have much luck with his students, does he?
"In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - Ben Kenobi
Must be Dumb Design then, huh?
If all his students turned out nuts, no wonder the green dude banished him to the middle of the desert.
False dilemma (or, at the very least, a poor description of option #1). He also lacks understanding of the Law of Large Numbers (to wit, one in a million is pretty likely if you get a million tries).
Well, I think Darth proves the Intelligent Design option is off the table, so I guess it's Dumb Luck.
Kelly Bundy: viola!
Bud Bundy: Uh, that's "voila", Kel ...
Kelly: Hey, what do I know. I flunked Spanish.
We are here via one of two ways...
1. Something WASN'T created, but created us, made up lots and lots of phony evidence, wrote a book, and then left.
2. Evolution adapted us to our environment.
Eliminate the likeliness of one..
Dumb Luck.
As in: World we were born into, all of it. A world we never made but religion insists we are responsible for.
Bullshit at any level you wanna play.
"1.) Dumb luck."
Shit happens.
This is the absolute and the unifying theory,
Shit DOES happen. Shit does affect things and shit doesn't affect everything but periodically and eventually shit affects everything.
I'll define shit when any of y'all can explain the Holy Ghost.
Confused?
So were we! You can find all of this, and more, on Fundies Say the Darndest Things!
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