1. Jesus predicted His resurrection (Matt. 16:21; Mark 9:9-10; John 2:18-22).
Or so the cult claims.
A narrative alluding to an event that is going to happen later in that same narrative is not a miracle. It’s a classic literary device called “foreshadowing”. And yes, back then, it was completely normal and accepted even for ostensibly historical works to make up speeches.
2. The Old Testament prophesied it (Psalm 16:10; compare Acts 2:25-31; 13:33-37).
I looked up the psalm. It expresses belief in the resurrection of the faithful, including the lyrical subject himself, in general, not the specific early resurrection of a demigod messiah.
Also, if the cult interpreted prophecy to point to a resurrection of their leader, this would make them accepting and/or fabricating tales of his resurrection, even if untrue, more plausible.
3. The tomb was empty and the graveclothes vacant. if those who opposed Christ wished to silence His disciples, all they had to do was produce a body, but they could not (John 20:3-9).
Or so the cult claims.
Even according to the Bible, less than a handful of adherents witnessed the empty tomb, and the cult stayed shattered for several weeks regardless. So the authorities could simply not see a need to engage with the wild conspiracy theories of a cult that had seemingly been dealt with - especially if the gospels exaggerate Jesu prominence during his lifetime. Also, it is extremely plausible that the cult would have believed in the empty tomb regardless of falsification, anyways. Not to mention the strong possibility of the physical resurrection emerging only later.
4. Many people saw the resurrected Christ. They looked on His face, touched Him, heard His voice, and saw Him eat (Matt. 28:16-20; Luke 24:13-39; John 20:11-29; John 21:1-9; Acts 1:6-11; 1 Cor. 15:3-8).
Or so the cult claims.
People see people dead loved ones or celebrities in completely unrelated people all the time - and some actually become convinced that this is way more than just a passing misidentification born from wishful thinking. Charlatans impersonate dead people somehow returned all the time - and yes, there are those who would indeed injure themselves for the grift. And of course, the cult could just have made such stories up.
5. The lives of the disciples were revolutionized. Though they fled and even denied Christ at the time of His arrest, they later feared no one in their proclamation of the risen Christ (Matt. 26:56, 69-75).
That at best only shows that the cult came to believe that Jesus had risen and emerged stronger from the crisis - not that Jesus actually rose. And, cynically speaking, the apostles could have come back, of course with a big show of performative repentance, when they realised that the cult was surviving, intent on taking advantage of the empty leadership position, and eventually came to believe their own lies. Plus, it is common for grifters to exaggerate - and that’s being generous - their previous disbelief to their claims to make what they’re selling seem like more of a life-changing revelation and/or to demonise the outgroup.
6. The resurrection was the central message of the early church. The church grew with an unwavering conviction that Christ had risen and was the Lord of the church (Acts 4:33; 5:30-32; Rom. 5:21).
Again, the cult growing stronger in the belief that their leader had been resurrected is not evidence that he actually was. People form successful movements over blatantly false premises constantly!
Also, people love to claim their positions as older than they actually are. Even Mark, the earliest gospel, was originally written more than forty years after the fact, when most witnesses of the time would have been dead even without the persecution of Christianity starting under Nero and the resulting martyrdom of Simon Petrus, and all gospels were written in Greek, with references clearly based on the Septuagint, and thus targeted audiences with a cultural background different from the Galileans and Judaeans Jesus preached to - even when it was hellenised Jews -, while the original Jewish-Christian community in Jerusalem was shattered with the Flavian diaspora. As such, it is very much possible that a metaphorical and/or spiritual triumph over death had over the decades morphed to include a literal resurrection, becoming accepted as what Christianity had “always” believed, with no one left to contradict.