Is Ukraine the New Poland?
Once upon a time, stop me if you’ve heard this story before, Anglo diplomats surveyed the ruins of a fallen empire, and hatched a nefarious plan. They insisted on the creation of a militaristic right-wing pseudostate, with borders drawn up in a way that would be deliberately provocative to her neighbors. Then the Western powers all swore that this weird artificial state had inviolable sovereignty and signed unenforceable mutual defense pacts with her. Just creating this imaginary country was a weird and stupid idea, and that decision was made even more weird and stupid by the following mutual defense agreements. Even a small border dispute would immediately and inevitably erupt into a world war, and of course that’s exactly what happened.
If you think I’m talking about 1991 Ukraine, you are correct, but also not correct. I’m talking about 1919 Poland.
Like in 1939, the West’s realpolitik games have serious chance of blowback, though probably not to the same extreme. Ukraine is not Nazi Germany except in their own minds. But Ukraine is a volatile failed state filled with nazis and military-grade weapons. This war has not caused a serious humanitarian crisis in Russia, but it is shaping up to be a serious problem for the West. Ukraine was a trap set by the West, Russia triggered that trap, and there’s an increasingly high chance that it’s backfiring right into our dictators’ faces.
Russia has already made her demands; the dissolution of NATO weapons and infrastructure in Eastern Europe. That’s what they clearly stated many times so we have to assume that’s the overall goal of Operation Z. The Western powers have, so far at least, not dared to directly challenge Russia in a military sense, and the economic warfare is showing growing signs of failure and backfire. If nothing goes seriously wrong, this might be remembered as Russia’s most brilliant maneuver since, well, WWII.