Mary Baker #fundie

Mary Baker #fundie prompt.newsvine.com

Since there is a 50% chance that someone could be either right or wrong and the consequences for being wrong greatly outweigh the consequences for being right, I think I would stay with being right. The odds for being wrong I am not willing to sacrifice my soul for.

60 comments

old comment by Brian-sama

The idea that either you're right or you're wrong does not guarantee you 50/50 odds. Think of it like this:

I bet on a horse race. Let's say I place my entire life's savings on Charlie Horse. Charlie Horse is one of ten horses running in the race. Now, if he wins, then I'm right (and I win as well). If he loses, though, then I'm wrong. Unfortunately, there are many more ways in which I could be wrong than there are in which I could be right.

This applies to Pascal's Wager as well. There have been thousands of gods and goddesses throughout history. If your god is the one deity who happens to exist, then good for him and you. If, however, another god exists, then you're screwed. Remember, there are thousands of them! Your odds are pretty low.

Really, though, unlike the horse analogy, it is highly likely that none of the gods even exist to finish the race. Thus, you're throwing your money and your life at something that isn't even real, which again means you lose.

old comment by Rat of Steel

"Since there is a 50% chance that someone could be either right or wrong..."

That is precisely where Pascal's Wager (which you are definitely invoking, whether or not you know its name) falls flat. As Saika pointed out, the vast multitude of religions that currently exist in the world (to say nothing of all those that ever have existed) bring the odds in favor of the believer well below "even money".

Try instead something that I like to call The Agnostic's Wager. It goes something like this:

Do your best to live a decent, honorable, reasonably fun life as if there is no God.

IF THE ATHEISTS OR DEISTS ARE RIGHT and there is no God, or there is a God but He never really gets involved in the affairs of mere humans, you'll be able to die with very few or no regrets, and those still alive will be glad to have known you.

IF JESUS IS RIGHT and God is a wise, benevolent God, then He'll certainly be able to see that you've honored Him by living a full life on the planet He created, and by also taking good care of said planet while you were there. You'll be rewarded accordingly, regardless of what you did or didn't believe regarding religion.

IF THE OLD TESTAMENT IS RIGHT and God is a jealous, spiteful, malevolent asshole, you might as well have fun in this life anyway because, no matter what you've done, when it comes time to start your next life, God WILL find a reason, no matter how trivial or nonsensical, to smite you and send you to whatever Hell He can think up for you.

old comment by Tired Christian

I think that they are trying to say that they are either right 9and going to heaven for being so) or wrong (and being in the same boat as everybody else). If that is the choice then, logically, the ideal route would be to believe.

However, it isn't as simple as that. There is a multitude of different beliefs (which screw the statistics) and there is also you're own attitude to your belief.

I understand when they are trying to say, but they don't see the full picture. Form a limited perspective, it follows correctly (and I applaud the person for actually making a reasonable point), however, by taking into account the EFFECTS of religion...well, atheism is probably the best way to go, or being an extremely lazy Christian like me)

old comment by Solomon

Several people have mentioned that it should be a 6000 (or so) to 1 odds given the available options to choose from. This is a moot point since the Wager itself is a specific yes/no question and we have as much information to decide one as the other. If the Wager were more broad in terms of which of the various beliefs is correct then it could be millions of options or maybe one we haven’t even come up with yet. But this Wager is highly specific since it includes a consequence (i.e. Hell) for not believing that only exists in two religions (Christianity and Islam) and Pascal was only concerned with Christianity.

Pascal himself misunderstood the concept since belief cannot be faked: one cannot simply decide to believe because they have a better chance of winning and no real loss if they are wrong. If God and Jesus (as envisioned in Christianity) do really exist then belief must be genuine and they would not be duped by such a simplistic ploy (also mentioned by “apYrs” #633707 on Page 2). So, if Christianity is true then neither option of the Wager will get one to Heaven; playing the game to begin with is a 100% loss (_War Games_ anyone?).

Now, “Rat of Steel” (#633517 on Page 1) also misstates a few things by mixing up Christianity with Judaism (Old Testament as he calls it). He states that if Jesus is real then he is loving and will forgive a lack of faith as long as you lived a good life whereas if the Old Testament is right then God is spiteful and will send you to Hell no matter what. This is backwards. In Christianity the idea is that what you do (i.e. works) is irrelevant as compared to faith (“There is no way to the father but through me” and “By faith alone you can be saved”). Whereas in Judaism there is no Hell, no One True Path, faith is not required, and we are judged on how we lived our lives which includes taking good care of other people and the planet regardless of what you do or do not believe.

Mary Baker #fundie prompt.newsvine.com

60 comments

Confused?