there is at least one theory why you could be doing someone a favour by giving them the virus. Evolutionary theory tells us that as a respiratory virus spreads, it loses potency. A successful virus is a mild one, which does not kill its host before they can spread it. This is how herd immunity really works in this context: it’s about the changes to the virus itself. In contrast, when we locked down, the virus had nowhere to go. Instead of getting milder, all of the most dangerous strains came together in the only places where sick people gathered: nursing homes and hospitals. This is why I greeted news that the virus was becoming more contagious with jubilation—it is better that the virus spread freely, at least among the healthy.
if you can suspend your disbelief for long enough to imagine that hindering the spread of the virus is worthwhile, then you might be forgiven for assuming that lockdowns are the way to do it. There is, however, no suggestion, let alone evidence, that lockdowns would pose a problem for a wily virus.
If lockdowns played any part at all, we would expect to see a correlation between the different forms of lockdowns enforced by various regions or countries, and the shape of the death curves there. But we do not—the correlation is zero. Belgium, the UK, New York: strict lockdowns; lots of deaths. Sweden, Japan, Uruguay: light or no lockdowns; few deaths. You can point to opposite examples, but that’s just the point—there is no consistency. And before you try to explain away individual countries with hand waving about ‘different cultures’ or ‘better testing’, there is no correlation with any of those things either.
You could just, you know, leave the pubs open and then open the schools too? But I suppose then there would be a ‘second wave’ in deaths two weeks later. You know, like the second wave that was warned of in May. And then June. And then July. Only in the past two weeks did the WHO finally give up the dream and change its story to ‘One Big Wave’, which doesn’t have the same ring to it. But the second wave fiction has not yet been memory holed—it can be trotted out on demand to force through any further assaults on our remaining freedoms.
All I can do is predict that a second wave in deaths will never materialise, and every day since April I have been proven right. The establishment, in contrast, makes wrong predictions again and again, and are never held to account.