[From “How to make peace in the Ukraine”]

The Ukraine war is existential for Russia and Russians

Russia has no natural borders, and a long history of the unpleasant consequences of having no natural borders. America’s natural borders are the oceans, and it takes a very dim view of hostile foreign powers on the wrong side of the ocean. Monroe doctrine, Cuban crisis[…]
The events of the nineteen nineties, and the events following 2014 demonstrated to Russia and Russian that America and Nato are hostile foreign powers, that it needs buffer states. It may not be politically possible to create neutral buffer states, but if that turns out to be politically impossible, it is definitely physically possible to create ruined, desolate, and depopulated deserts

This is, of course, very unfair to the barking chihuahua states on Russia’s borders. Russia does not care. This is existential. Americans worry about democracy, Russians worry about security[…]
Unfortunately a major faction of Thermidor, and a major faction of the Trump cabinet, are unable to see how Russians see this, and are stubbornly headed into total war. They are going to see any peace that Russia might agree with as surrender and rewarding aggression. Which, of course, it is. Russia does not like the status quo of permanent low level war against Russia and hostile states aligned with a menacing and violent hostile power on its borders, wants to change it, and is willing to change it by violence[…]
So how can Trump resolve this mess without being so embarrassed, and looking so weak, as to break the Thermidor coalition?

I hope that Vance’s Munich speech was the tactic to accomplish this. Making capitulation a win:

It was obvious that the violent overthrow of the democratically elected government by the Nuland cabal in the Maidan events was unpopular in the Ukraine[…]
He is ready for enemies that kick over the chessboard, so we will learn if he really is playing 4D chess