The problem with that article is it assumes that the US, a nation of over 329 million people, is just going to sit by and let a bunch of wannabe dictator take over… when they won’t, and the size of the nation of the nation is going to make it alot harder to secure the nation. This isn’t some third world state, mind you, that’s not even close to the size of the US geographically and population. That’s not getting into the fact that the US has considerable importance to the overall world economy as well, as it is the world’s chief exporter of beef and alot of other foodstuff. Actually its’ going to be more akin to a violent civil war that erupts then the US becoming a far right dictatorship, one that will have world reaching affects felt by everyone in some way, especially Canada with much of its’ population located near or at the US border.
here’s what someone told me about the whole thing and how it doesn’t seem to be an accurate piece.
“Well firstly, Thomas Homer-Dixon is just another self promoting academic who can't get a job at a real university or geopolitics think tank. So I wouldn't take what he has to say seriously at all (you'll notice they don't name him in the headline).
Secondly, his justification for the US being under a dictatorship in 2030 is based on flimsy speculation that is just following the same intellectually void spitballing about 2024 that everyone is making out of sheer panic. So its not an academic analysis, its just this guy's random opinion.
Thirdly, and most damming, for someone who claims to be a "scholar of violent conflict" (looked at his career, he's a scholar of clickbait) he completely runs past what "nullifying internal opposition" would actually mean, and focuses on how to handle the extradition of high-profile political refugees. Firstly, the US isn't some small third-world country where killing internal opposition requires a political purge, taking over an airport, a TV station, and maybe killing a few thousand civilians. This is a country of 329 million people, 400 million guns, and 3.1 million square miles of contiguous territory with multiple internal physical defenses, all while being the absolute center of the global economy. "Nullifying internal opposition" would require a level of disruption in the daily life of this country that it would only breed a violent reprisal. That means escalation, that means civil war, and that means a global economic collapse unheard of in living memory.
Canada's biggest worry should be that more than twice their population live in the American midwest, a region that would likely be a major disputed zone during such a war, a region known for being hit by extreme cold "Polar Vortexes" during the winter months, and a region that would likely be cut off from major supply chains entirely for a portion of the conflict. That region could completely overwhelm Ontario with DPs (Displaced Persons) and collapse their social service system. With their own military now trying to police millions of American refugees, it would give the Albertans an excuse to secede and join the Sovereign Citizen's Republic of Trumpistan or whatever the rebs will call their pretender government. The war would spread over the border.
Oh also, the US has the biggest oil refining capacity on Earth, and is the number 1 exporter of livestock feed, so even if just those supply chains are cut off from the wider world, you'll see the collapse of the global oil market, along with famine and eventually civil unrest spreading around the world.”